#CountdowntoCauseway 1: Score Prediction

And with two hours until kickoff, one final question remains: who will win?

Hornets, says the casual fan, looking at the teams’ records this season.

Ags, says the Bayesian statistician along with the older Aggie fan.

Indeed, looking at the past four years (and past decade) would indicate an Aggie victory. Regardless of record, UCD almost always beats Sac State. But then again, UC Davis hasn’t usually had this bad of a record.

The Hornets are also quite good this year, with a great passing game under Garret Saffron and his best-in-class receivers. Passing defense is incidentally what the Ags are quite mediocre at; our one victory was against Cal Poly, a school that rarely passes.

However, Poly has a quite stout defense which gave up 48 points the Ags, indicating the home team’s offense might have evolved to something similar to Sac’s. The game may become very light on defense and turn into a score-most-in-the-allotted-time affair.

The weather also plays a role; if it keeps raining or the wind picks up, expect to see offensive stats off from normal for both teams.

However, with a historic and home-field advantage, there is no reason to not place bets with the Ags on this one. 52-48 Aggies.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>